Retrospective Predictability

I have been reading a bit from John Bogle of late and came across an interesting term Retrospective Predictability that caught my attention. The term comes from the three characteristics that define what is called a ‘Black Swan’ event which he describes in his article Black Monday and Black Swans.

Retrospective Predictability is defined as:

A happening that, after the fact, our human nature enables us to accept by concocting explanations that make it seem predictable.

This term is used in the context of teh stock market but I think that such occurances also occur in technology as well as other areas. I could almost hear the chorus of memories when I or someone I was working with said ‘Oh yeah I knew that was going to happen’ when something went wrong.


One Response to “Retrospective Predictability”

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